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The VAM-C model has been shown to be a robust predictor of 126 13-year temperature and precipitation trends in the mid-to-high latitudes of North America, Europe, and Asia (Dale et al., 2014)1748, using threshold-based event detection and statistical approaches. 14-year trend detection was successfully applied to the same dataset in the Weizhou region, China, with similar results (Dai et al., 2015)1230. A long-term trend reconstruction has been conducted for the first time over a large region (Han et al., 2015).
During 2006–2015, the three largest volcanic eruptions (ELA, NU, NM) in the Banda Arc, Indonesia, significantly affected the region’s sea level, surface air temperature, and the resulting sea-level rise rate (fractional contribution up to 6 mm per year) (Masugo et al., 2017)1231. Furthermore, the Kyzyl Kum volcano in the Banda Arc exerted a strong influence on the region’s recent hot surface temperature. Sea level in the region during the LIP period was negative, rising up to -1 mm in the sedimentary section near the crater, -0.8 mm in the middle of the rift zone, and -0.85 mm in the adjacent shelf margin area. Notably, a large (6 mm/a) sea level rise rate is recorded on the continental shelf margin of the Nukuhiva Atoll, which is located near the Kyzyl Kum volcanic complex, and this feature was formed during the past LIP. Note that, the relatively high sedimentary section affected by the Kyzyl Kum LIP activity advanced 0.6 to 2 m higher than the tide-gauge levels over ~200–250 years, showing a recorded sea stand for the past LIP. Given that rapid uplift of shoreline terrace along the Banda Arc is also observed during the LIP, this study suggests that surface warming in the Banda Arc may be amplified by a displacement of the land–sea interface, and such a displacement may have a significant impact on coastal ecosystems and future coastal hazards (especially coastal erosion) in the region. To characterize future coastal hazards, future projections from different global climate models and simulations under the emissions scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were compared.
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